Macro

Romania’s National Prognosis Commission (CNP) has sharply revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.6%, down from the previous estimate of 1.4%, according to its Autumn Forecast released on September 5. The updated figure will serve as the baseline for the government’s imminent budget revision. The downgrade marks a significant shift from last December’s budget planning assumptions, which had projected 2.5% growth

Romania closed the first seven months of 2025 with a consolidated budget deficit of RON 76.44 billion (€15.34 billion), according to Ministry of Finance data. Although revenues rose strongly, expenditures outpaced them, underscoring the structural challenges facing the country. The deficit, equivalent to 4.04% of GDP, is up by RON 5.4 billion compared with the same period in 2024. Total revenues reached

Romania has emerged as the European Union’s inflation champion in July 2025, with consumer prices rising at the fastest pace among the bloc’s 27 members. According to Eurostat, the country registered an annual inflation rate of 6.6%, far above the EU average of 2.4% and nearly three times the euro area’s 2.0% rate. The next highest inflation readings were reported in Estonia

The National Bank of Romania (BNR) has delivered a sharp warning on the country’s inflation outlook, revising its 2025 forecast from 4.6% to 8.8%. Governor Mugur Isărescu cautioned that price growth could climb even higher, exceeding 9% by year’s end, with a peak anticipated in September. The upward revision follows the expiration of Romania’s energy price cap scheme, which the BNR estimates

Starting August 1, 2025, Romanians are bracing for a wave of price hikes after the Bolojan government enacted its first austerity package to address a budget deficit exceeding 9% of GDP. The key measures involve sweeping changes to VAT, excise duties, and social contributions, impacting nearly every household. The standard VAT rate rises from 19% to 21%, while the previous reduced rates

More than half of Romanian business managers across several sectors anticipate price increases in the third quarter of 2025, according to the latest business sentiment survey published by the National Institute of Statistics (INS). Specifically, 54.5% of retail managers and 57% of construction managers believe prices will rise between July and September, underscoring persistent inflation concerns. In the retail sector, managers expect

Romania’s newly appointed Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, who took office on June 23 leading a centre-right coalition, has unveiled a sweeping package of austerity measures aimed at narrowing the country’s ballooning budget deficit—the highest in the European Union. The measures, scheduled to take effect on August 1, are part of a broader effort to avert a potential financial breakdown. Speaking at a

Romania’s economic outlook continues to darken as two major banks — Austria’s Erste Group and ING Bank Romania — have sharply downgraded their 2025 GDP growth forecasts, citing weak domestic momentum and rising downside risks. Erste Group, which owns BCR in Romania, now expects the country’s economy to expand by just 1.3% this year, down from a previous estimate of 1.8%. ING

The National Bank of Romania (BNR) has raised its inflation forecast for the end of 2025 to 4.6%, up from the previously estimated 3.8%, according to Governor Mugur Isărescu during the presentation of the May 2025 Inflation Report. The central bank now sees inflation declining to 3.4% by the end of 2026, compared to the earlier projection of 3.1%. Isărescu, the world’s

In March 2025, the average gross earnings in Romania reached 9,495 lei (approximately €1,900), an increase of 563 lei (+6.3%) compared to February 2025, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics (INS) released on May 15, 2025. Net earnings rose to 5,691 lei (approximately €1,140), up 340 lei (+6.4%) from the previous month. Wage growth was particularly strong in high-value