The Macroeconomic Confidence Index of the CFA Society Romania rose by 2.3 points in January 2025, reaching 40.4 points. According to analysts, inflation is expected to reach 4.97% over the next 12 months.
Adrian Codirlasu, Vice-President of the CFA Romania Society, highlighted that the Romanian economy will face significant challenges this year. These include a substantial government deficit, economic growth below potential levels, and persistent inflation. Survey participants predict only a marginal reduction in the deficit by one percentage point, along with economic growth similar to the previous year and inflation stabilizing at its current level.
The increase in the Macroeconomic Confidence Index was driven by improvements in both its components. The expectations component climbed by 1.7 points to 32.5 points, while the current conditions component surged by 3.5 points to 56.2 points.
For the upcoming 12 months, the anticipated inflation rate is forecasted to average 4.97%. Concerning the euro (EUR)/leu (RON) exchange rate, all survey participants foresee a depreciation of the leu. The average predicted exchange rate for the six-month horizon is RON 5.0759 per euro, and for the 12-month horizon, it is RON 5.1595 per euro.
Regarding residential property prices in urban areas, opinions are mixed. Thirty-nine percent of participants expect stagnation, 45% anticipate an increase, and 29% foresee a decrease. Furthermore, 62% believe current prices are overvalued, while 33% consider them appropriately valued.
The forecast for the government deficit in 2025 remains steady at an average expectation of 7.3% of GDP. Economic growth projections for 2025 are slightly higher than the previous year, averaging 1.5%.
Public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to rise to 55% within the next 12 months.
This monthly survey, conducted by the CFA Society Romania for over 13 years, serves as an indicator to measure financial analysts’ expectations regarding Romania’s economic activity over a one-year period.
CFA Society Romania is an organization representing investment professionals in Romania who hold the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation, awarded by the US-based CFA Institute.
