The Freightos Baltic Index (FBX), the world’s leading container and freight rate benchmark, continued its decline in March 2025, sliding 24% month-on-month (MoM) to $2,094 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU)—its lowest level so far this year. This sharp drop was driven by a combination of post-Lunar New Year (LNY) demand softness, ongoing adjustments in carrier alliances, and expanded shipping capacity entering the market.
While the index has slipped below its 2024 floor, global container prices still remain 60% higher than pre-pandemic 2019 levels, largely due to persistent Red Sea diversions. These detours—triggered by security concerns in the region—are absorbing global vessel capacity and extending transit times, preventing rates from returning to historic lows.
Rate declines were notable on the Asia-Mediterranean and Asia-Northern Europe lanes, where prices dropped between 15% and 20% MoM, to $3,250/FEU and $2,565/FEU respectively. Since the pre-LNY surge, rates to Europe have plunged 50%, despite continued congestion at major European ports and vessel rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. These prices are now 20% lower than their lowest levels seen in early 2024, highlighting the growing pricing pressure across key trade corridors.
Short-Term Headwinds, Long-Term Growth
The container segment, responsible for moving 60% of all seaborne goods, plays a central role in global commerce. More than 90% of the world’s trade is transported by sea, making fluctuations in the container market a key indicator of economic momentum and supply chain health.
As the year progresses, the container shipping market is expected to remain highly volatile, influenced by geopolitical instability, new environmental regulations, capacity shifts, and peak-season dynamics. Cargo delivery times are increasing as more vessels are diverted from their original courses, while port congestion adds further unpredictability.
Yet, despite short-term headwinds, the underlying growth trend remains intact. According to UNCTAD, the main East-West shipping lanes handled 59.36 million TEUs in 2024, representing a 5% increase from the prior year. Looking ahead, DHL Global Forwarding anticipates 3.6% average annual growth in containerized trade between 2024 and 2028. This would equate to an additional 6.1 million TEUs of global capacity required annually to meet rising demand.
Asia Drives Trade Momentum Amid Rate Recovery Forecasts
DHL’s April 2025 Ocean Freight Market Update points to an early peak season for shipments to Europe, due to the continued rerouting of cargo around southern Africa. As a result, container rates are expected to rebound in May and June.
In terms of regional performance, Asia-Pacific exports, particularly from China, were the primary growth engine in 2024. The final quarter of 2024 set a new global record for container trade volumes, bolstered by robust demand and inventory restocking across the region.
Meanwhile, the global container vessel order book has exceeded 9 million TEU for the first time ever, though only two-thirds of this fleet is projected to be delivered before 2028. For 2025, global container trade is forecast to grow another 4.3%, with Asia–South America lanes registering standout growth of 30% in December 2024 alone. However, some trades, including Europe–Asia and Transpacific Westbound, have posted mild declines in recent months, revealing a fragmented landscape.
The global container shipping industry is navigating a delicate balancing act—between falling spot rates and structural growth, between short-term volatility and long-term resilience. As market dynamics continue to evolve, stakeholders will need to stay agile in the face of ongoing disruptions and shifting global trade patterns.
