The Vienna-based Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Tuesday (Nov. 12) further cut its forecasts for world oil demand growth this year and next, marking the cartel’s downward revision for the fourth consecutive month.
In its monthly oil market report for November, OPEC now expects a “healthy” global oil demand growth of 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2024. The figure was revised downward by 107,000 bpd from the previous month’s estimate.
The oil demand growth forecast for 2025 was also cut, by 103,000 bpd to 1.5 million bpd with growth expected to be “driven by requirements mostly for jet/kerosene, followed by gasoline.”
The revision underscores weaker demand expectations for key regions such as China, India, and other parts of the world.
OPEC already lowered its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025 in its monthly market reports for three months in a row since August.
Oil pared gains after the November report was issued, with Brent crude trading below $73 a barrel. Oil prices have generally trended downward in recent weeks amid concerns over slowing global demand.
Earlier this month, eight member countries of OPEC+, a group comprising OPEC and its allies such as Russia, announced an extension of their voluntary oil production cuts by a month until the end of December.
“Yet the cartel’s outlook remains significantly more bullish than other forecasters — from Wall Street banks and trading houses, and even Saudi Arabia’s oil company, Aramco. It’s roughly double the rate anticipated by the International Energy Agency” Bloomberg wrote.
The IEA, which represents industrialised countries, sees demand growth of 860,000 bpd in 2024 and is scheduled to update its figures on Thursday.
