In its latest monthly report released in March, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 at 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd), consistent with its previous estimates. This projection underscores the organization’s confidence in steady oil consumption trends despite ongoing global economic uncertainties. The report also highlighted a slight upward revision in total world oil demand to 105.2 million bpd, driven by robust air travel demand, strong road mobility, and thriving industrial, construction, and agricultural activities in non-OECD countries.
The breakdown of demand growth indicates that OECD nations are expected to contribute an additional 0.1 million bpd, while non-OECD countries will account for a more substantial increase of 1.3 million bpd. Notably, OPEC’s outlook remains markedly optimistic compared to other industry players like the International Energy Agency (IEA), which projects this year’s oil demand growth at 1.1 million bpd. For 2026, OPEC anticipates another rise of 1.4 million bpd, bringing total global oil demand to 106.6 million bpd—a figure unchanged from its February report.
On the supply side, February data revealed a significant uptick in production within the broader OPEC+ coalition, increasing output by 363,000 bpd. Kazakhstan led this surge, producing 1.767 million bpd in February, surpassing its January levels of 1.570 million bpd. This increase was attributed to Chevron’s expanded operations at Tengiz, Kazakhstan’s largest oilfield. However, Kazakhstan continues to exceed its OPEC+ quota of 1.468 million bpd. Other member states, including the United Arab Emirates, Nigeria, and Gabon, have also reported production levels slightly above their respective quotas.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak recently announced that OPEC+ members agreed to begin ramping up oil production starting in April. Nevertheless, he emphasized that the decision could be reversed if market conditions deteriorate due to imbalances. This cautious approach reflects the group’s commitment to maintaining stability in global energy markets amid fluctuating demand dynamics.
Beyond oil-specific forecasts, OPEC reiterated its world economic growth projections for 2025 and 2026, holding them steady at 3.1% and 3.2%, respectively. These figures align with the organization’s belief in sustained economic recovery and expansion across key regions. In particular, the United States is projected to experience GDP growth rates of 2.4% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, unchanged from earlier estimates. Similarly, the Eurozone’s economic performance is anticipated to improve marginally, with GDP growth set at 0.9% this year and 1.1% next year, mirroring February’s projections. Meanwhile, China’s economy is forecasted to grow by 4.7% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026, maintaining consistency with previous reports.
One notable factor influencing global economic sentiment is the escalating trade tensions initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump. His administration imposed tariffs on a wide range of goods imported from major trading partners such as China, Mexico, and Canada, alongside levies on all steel and aluminum imports. Several countries retaliated with their own tariffs targeting U.S. exports. Despite these developments, OPEC expressed optimism about the resilience of the global economy. “Trade concerns are expected to contribute to volatility as trade policies continue to evolve,” the report noted. “However, the global economy is expected to adapt.”
The organization pointed out that growing trade among emerging economies could help mitigate some disruptions caused by tariffs. Nonetheless, it cautioned that downside risks must be closely monitored, given the uncertainties surrounding policy implementation and their potential ripple effects. This nuanced perspective highlights OPEC’s awareness of both opportunities and challenges posed by shifting geopolitical landscapes.
Overall, OPEC’s report paints a picture of cautious optimism. While reaffirming its positive stance on oil demand and economic growth, the organization acknowledges the complexities introduced by volatile trade policies and uneven adherence to production quotas.
