The annual inflation rate, as measured by consumer price indices, is expected to continue its downward trajectory throughout the year, before stabilizing in the upper half of the target range starting in 2026, according to National Bank of Romania (BNR) Governor Mugur Isarescu on Monday.
The ongoing tension between the United States and the European Union was not factored into this forecast, but based on both external developments and internal data, we project this inflation trajectory, National Bank of Romania (BNR) Governor Mugur Isărescu stated during a press conference at the NBR headquarters while presenting the new quarterly Inflation Report.
He reiterated that the annual inflation rate, measured by consumer price indices, will maintain a generally downward trend throughout the year before stabilizing in the upper half of the target range starting in 2026. “Compared to the previous forecast, inflation is now slightly higher, but as indicated by the red curve, the outlook improves toward the end of the forecast period,” he noted.
According to Isarescu, no major inflationary pressures are expected in the first half of the year, with price movements primarily influenced by lingering effects of past economic shocks.
Isărescu emphasized that Romania was not the ‘inflation champion’ last year, as some claimed. In fact, the country recorded the lowest inflation figures compared to three similar economies— the Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary. However, he acknowledged that while inflation declined, the pace of reduction was slower in Romania.
“Hungary recorded the highest inflation, peaking at nearly 25%, followed by Poland, while Romania was only slightly below the Czech Republic. However, the pace of disinflation was much slower in our case. This occurred in 2024, an electoral year, which came with several challenges that you are well aware of,” he added.
Romania’s annual inflation rate eased to 5% in January 2025, down from 5.1% recorded in the previous two months. The slowdown was driven by lower prices for food (4.54% vs. 5.09% in December) and services (6.54% vs. 7.1%), while non-food product costs edged up slightly (4.60% vs. 4.38%), the National Institute data showed on Friday. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.9% in January, following a 0.3% increase in December.
