Serbia’s foreign exchange (FX) reserves continued to decline in April 2025, reflecting a combination of government debt repayments, financial market movements, and central bank interventions.
At the end of April 2025, the Gross National Bank of Serbia (NBS) FX reserves stood at EUR 27,705.4 million, down EUR 822.0 million from the previous month. This level of reserves covered 169.6% of the country’s M1 money supply and provided 6.8 months of import cover, significantly exceeding the minimum adequacy standard.
Impact of Debt Repayments and Market Dynamics
Net FX reserves, which exclude banks’ FX balances, liabilities to the IMF, and other specific obligations, totaled EUR 23,333.7 million, a decrease of EUR 692.9 million from March. The decline was primarily driven by:
Government net debt repayments in FX loans and other liabilities totaling EUR 619.3 million
Net withdrawal of banks’ FX reserves amounting to EUR 78.7 million
Net outflows from NBS interventions in the local FX market, including EUR 165.0 million in FX sales and EUR 105.0 million in FX purchases (with part of the inflow recorded in May due to the T+2 settlement principle)
Inflows to FX reserves were recorded from FX reserve management, grants, and other sources, adding EUR 110.7 million net. However, market factors had a negative impact of EUR 174.7 million, mainly due to a 4.7% weakening of the US dollar against the euro, partially offset by a 6.0% rise in gold prices.
Currency Stability and Market Performance
Despite the pressure on reserves, the Serbian dinar remained broadly stable against the euro in April, with a nominal depreciation of just 0.2% since the start of the year. The NBS bought EUR 45.0 million net in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM) during the month, bringing total net FX sales to EUR 910.0 million so far this year to support the dinar’s relative stability.
Trading volumes in the IFEM reached EUR 738.8 million in April, up EUR 68.6 million from March, while total trading for the first four months of 2025 amounted to EUR 2,887.4 million.
Economic Outlook Remains Uncertain
Serbia’s economic growth outlook has been revised downward. The NBS now expects GDP growth of 3.5% for 2025, down from the 4.5% projected in February, reflecting a slower-than-expected first quarter. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has similarly revised its growth forecast for Serbia to 3.5% from 4.0%. Meanwhile, net foreign direct investment (FDI) in the first quarter fell 55% year-on-year to EUR 556 million.