A historic shift is underway in global shipping. On 26 June, the Hong Kong International Convention for the Safe and Environmentally Sound Recycling of Ships (HKC) officially entered into force, setting international rules for how vessels must be dismantled at the end of their life. The timing couldn’t be more urgent: ship recycling is projected to more than double over the next decade, according to BIMCO.
The latest forecast from BIMCO, the world’s largest shipping association, estimates that approximately 16,000 ships—or 700 million deadweight tonnes (DWT)—will be scrapped globally by 2034. That’s nearly twice the number of ships and nearly three times the tonnage dismantled in the last ten years.
The projection is based on historic recycling patterns between 2000 and 2019. BIMCO applied average scrapping rates by vessel type and age—meaning, for example, that if 10% of 20-year-old capesize bulk carriers were dismantled during that period, the same rate is assumed for the coming years.
A notable trend is the rise of vessels built in the 2000s. While shipbuilding increased sharply during that decade—31% more ships and 115% more tonnage than the 1990s—very few have been scrapped to date. Just 3% of these ships and 5% of their DWT have been recycled so far. By contrast, 20% of 1990s-built ships and 67% of their DWT have already been dismantled.
The bulk of scrapped tonnage—around 91%—will come from bulk carriers, tankers, and container ships, though general cargo vessels and fishing boats will also contribute significantly in numbers.
Geographically, South Asia remains the epicenter. Between 2015 and 2024, Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan handled 86% of DWT and 58% of recycled vessels. Since China exited the international shipbreaking market in 2017, its contribution has dropped to less than 2%. Outside of South Asia, Turkey remains a key player, particularly for offshore vessel dismantling.
The HKC’s enforcement marks a major milestone. Ratified by 24 countries—including ship recycling leaders like India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Türkiye, and registry giants like Japan, Panama, Liberia, and the Marshall Islands—the Convention covers over 57% of the world’s tonnage.
Yet challenges remain. Legal tensions with the Basel Convention, which governs hazardous waste but not the full lifecycle of ships, create regulatory overlap.
Still, the industry stands at a pivotal moment. With volumes set to surpass the 2012 record of 1,800 ships recycled in a single year, the future of shipbreaking must be safe, compliant, and circular.
“As more and more ships head for HKC compliant recycling, it is time to regard them not as waste but as a resource. The potential for adding to the circular economy is tremendous but recycling must be done responsibly” says Gudrun Janssens, BIMCO Regional & Regulatory Manager, Intergovernmental Engagement.
