The global shipbuilding industry may be approaching a turning point. While the sector faces long-term replacement needs for aging vessels, a new wave of capacity—particularly from China—is colliding with macroeconomic uncertainty, prompting forecasts that newbuild prices will stall in 2025.
In its authoritative annual shipping market review, shipbroker BRS predicts that the global shipbuilding market will experience a slowdown in new orders. “Shipyards will suffer from a slowdown in ordering, even as additional shipbuilding capacity comes on stream,” stated Gilbert Walter, BRS chairman and CEO. Walter described the current landscape as highly unpredictable, suggesting that 2025, like the start of the year, is “ripe for asset play,” where older ship values weaken and shipbuilding prices stagnate.
China’s Resurgence and Capacity Risks
One of the key constraints in the market is delivery time. In 2024, the average delivery slot for a newbuild vessel extended to over four years, a factor that has driven dormant shipyards in China to reopen and expand.
BRS reports a second shipbuilding boom emerging in China, nearly two decades after its first major ascent. A series of new or revived facilities—including Hubei Jinyu, Yangzhou Guoyu, and Wuhu Shipyard—are expanding China’s grip on global shipbuilding. Established names like Yangzijiang and New Times Shipbuilding are also scaling up operations. According to BRS, this new capacity could boost annual global output from 1,500 to 1,700 ships.
This expansion arrives just as the U.S. considers penalizing Chinese-built tonnage calling at American ports, adding geopolitical tension to the economic uncertainty. In total, there are now about 348 active shipyards worldwide, down from a 2007 peak of 700.
Forecast: Cooling Prices and Mounting Uncertainty
BRS maintains that the industry has been in a supercycle since 2021, driven by the need to replace ships delivered between 2003 and 2008—many of which are nearing the end of their lifecycle and were built before the eco-efficiency wave of the 2010s.
However, two critical risks could challenge the market. First, uncontrolled capacity expansion may lead to oversupply and price erosion. Second, main engine manufacturing delays have become a serious bottleneck. “No ship will be delivered without a main engine,” BRS warned, highlighting the growing disconnect between shipyard schedules and engine availability.
Looking ahead, BRS projects that global ship orders will fall to 100 million deadweight tons (dwt) in 2025—down from 193 million dwt last year. This reflects continued uncertainty in global freight markets, which is delaying investment decisions.
Although newbuild prices remain historically high, they have shown signs of softening. Rival analyst Clarksons Research notes that its newbuilding price index has declined by 1% since the start of the year, suggesting that a cooling period may be underway across sectors.
In summary, the shipbuilding industry stands at a crossroads—caught between long-term demand, short-term caution, and a new wave of capacity expansion that could either support or destabilize the market.
