Copper is charging toward new heights in 2025. Prices are forecast to exceed $12,000 per metric ton this year, as a mix of supply disruptions, tariff speculation, and soaring demand fuel a bullish outlook, according to top traders speaking at the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne.
The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper benchmark, which hit a record near $11,000 in May 2024, has climbed steadily this year and was trading around $10,000 as of March 24. On the COMEX in New York, May delivery contracts reached $5.2255 per pound, equivalent to $11,520 per tonne, breaking last year’s peak.
Tariff Fears and the U.S. Factor
A key factor fueling copper’s rally is the growing possibility of U.S. import tariffs. U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered the Commerce Department to investigate copper imports on national security grounds. Since then, traders have rushed to secure supplies before any duties are imposed, pushing prices higher.
Goldman Sachs and Citigroup expect 25% tariffs to be introduced by year-end, though Bloomberg reported they could come sooner. The looming policy has led to a surge in shipments to the U.S., with 400,000 to 500,000 tonnes of copper reportedly en route.
“The possibility of a 25% tariff on all copper imports has created uncertainty in the market, leading to a rush by traders to buy and store copper in the U.S.,” said John Murillo, Chief Dealing Officer at B2Broker.
Global Demand and Infrastructure Push
Alongside geopolitical pressures, copper is riding a wave of industrial demand. As economies like the U.S. and EU prepare to overhaul aging power grids and electrify infrastructure, copper’s role becomes indispensable.
This investment would require huge amounts of the metal, said Aline Carnizelo, managing partner at Frontier Commodities, part of the group of experts eyeing the $12,000 price target.
One ton of copper can power 40 cars, 100,000 mobile phones, or 30 homes, according to the International Copper Association. This highlights the critical role of copper in energy transition, telecommunications, construction, and transport.
Supply Disruptions and Outlook
Tight global supply is adding more fuel to the fire. In March, Glencore suspended operations at one of its copper smelters in Chile, creating a production gap. At the same time, structural bottlenecks in refining and logistics persist.
“Copper markets are already experiencing tightness,” noted Kostas Bintas, global head of metals and minerals at Mercuria, referring to the huge amounts of copper imports into the US that have reshaped trade flows.
Long-term forecasts remain even more bullish. According to the International Energy Agency, the world will meet only 70% of global copper demand by 2035, signaling extended structural shortages unless major new mining and refining capacity comes online.
Still, caution remains. Commerzbank analysts warned that U.S. demand may drop sharply once the “pull-forward” effect from tariff fears fades. “There may be a price correction, at least temporarily,” they noted in a recent report.
