Unicredit Romania growth 2025
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Unicredit forecasts 1.8% 2025 GDP growth in Romania

Critical role of private consumption in driving growth

Italian financial group UniCredit has projected a 1.8% growth for Romania’s economy in 2025. The primary driver of this growth is anticipated to be private consumption. According to the leading European financial institution’s projections fixed investments will contribute 1pp to Romania’s overall growth rate, half the 2pp contribution of private consumption.

Unicredit estimates that public investment will have a greater contribution to economic growth in 2025, thanks to EU funds and the PNRR. The banking giant believes that Romania will manage to take EUR 4.2 billion, or 1.1% of GDP, from the PNRR compared to 0% in the previous year. By leveraging EU funds effectively, Romania can address structural challenges, modernize its infrastructure, and boost its competitiveness in the global market.

However, Romania’s growth rate, will be among the lowest in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region. The strongest growth rate is expected in Serbia (over 4%), while Slovakia (1.6%) is expected to be the worst performer.

Unicredit analysts see Romania’s budget deficit’s reduction as the main problem. Romania submitted its seven-year deficit reduction plan to Brussels last October, saying it aimed to lower the fiscal shortfall from 7.0% in 2025 to 2.5% in 2031. According to Unicredit, the austerity package approved by the Romanian authorities at the end of 2024 will not be sufficient to reduce the budget deficit from 8.6% to 7%. As a consequence, taxes hikes seem inevitable to reach this deficit target.

In a further test of investors’ confidence, Fitch has cut Romania’s credit rating outlook to negative and all three main ratings agencies have the country on their lowest investment-grade.

When it comes to foreign exchange, UniCredit expect the exchange rate to increase from 4.97 RON/EUR to 5.07 in 2025 and 5.15 in 2026.


UniCredit is a prominent European banking group headquartered in Milan, Italy. Operating in 13 countries with over 25 million clients, it provides a wide range of banking and financial services, emphasizing innovation, sustainability, and customer-centric solutions.